Anchoring Bias
The first number or piece of information we hear disproportionately shapes everything that follows.
Also known as: Anchoring effect, Focalism
What it means
Anchoring bias is the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered when making decisions. That initial piece of information - the anchor - sets the frame for everything that follows, even when it’s arbitrary or irrelevant.
This isn’t a sign of weak thinking. It happens to experts and novices alike. Studies have shown that even obviously random numbers - like spinning a wheel before asking people to estimate the number of African countries in the UN - affect the estimates people give. The anchor doesn’t need to be sensible. It just needs to be first.
The effect is powerful because adjusting away from an anchor is effortful. Our brains start from the anchor and adjust, but the adjustment is almost always insufficient. We stay closer to the starting point than we should, and we rarely notice it happening.
In the real world
In retail, the “was £200, now £79” tag is pure anchoring. The £200 price sets the frame, making £79 feel like a bargain - regardless of whether the item was ever worth £200, or whether £79 is a fair price on its own terms.
In salary negotiations, whoever states a number first sets the anchor. If a job listing says “up to £60,000,” every subsequent negotiation orbits that figure. In political debate, an extreme opening demand serves the same function - it makes a merely unreasonable position look like a compromise.
How to spot it
Notice the first number in any negotiation or discussion. Ask yourself: would I think differently about this if the opening figure had been completely different? If yes, you've found the anchor.
The thought to hold onto
The first number you hear is rarely the most important - but your brain treats it as if it is.