Feedback Loops
When the output of a system feeds back in as input, either amplifying or dampening the original effect.
Also known as: reinforcing loops, balancing loops, vicious circles, virtuous circles
What it means
A feedback loop occurs when the output of a process circles back to become its input, either strengthening or weakening the original effect. There are two fundamental types, and understanding the difference between them is one of the most useful thinking tools you can have.
A reinforcing loop (also called a positive feedback loop, though “positive” doesn’t mean “good”) amplifies change. The more something happens, the more it continues to happen. A bank run is a reinforcing loop: people withdraw money because they’re worried the bank will run out of money, which makes the bank more likely to run out of money, which makes more people withdraw. Each action feeds the next.
A balancing loop (also called a negative feedback loop) resists change and pushes a system back toward equilibrium. A thermostat is the simplest example: when the room gets too cold, the heating turns on; when it gets warm enough, the heating turns off. The system self-corrects.
Most real-world situations involve both types interacting, which is why complex problems resist simple solutions.
In the real world
Social media is built on reinforcing loops. You engage with content that provokes a strong emotional reaction. The algorithm notices and shows you more of the same. Your emotional reactions intensify. You engage more. The algorithm learns. The loop tightens. Nobody designed this to radicalise people - but the feedback loop doesn’t care about intentions.
Climate change involves a devastating reinforcing loop: rising temperatures melt Arctic ice, which reduces the amount of sunlight reflected back into space, which raises temperatures further, which melts more ice. Each stage accelerates the next.
In everyday life, confidence works as a reinforcing loop in both directions. A small success boosts your confidence, which makes you perform better, which creates more success. But a failure can start the loop spinning the other way - doubt leading to hesitation, leading to worse outcomes, leading to deeper doubt. The mechanism is identical; only the direction changes.
How to spot it
Ask whether the effect you're seeing is making itself stronger or weaker over time. If a situation keeps escalating with no obvious new cause, you're probably inside a reinforcing loop. If it keeps returning to a stable point, it's a balancing loop.
The thought to hold onto
Most of the things that feel like they're spiralling out of control aren't being pushed by an outside force. They're being pulled by their own momentum.