Hot-Cold Empathy Gap
We're terrible at predicting how we'll feel - or how others feel - in a different emotional state.
What it means
The hot-cold empathy gap is our inability to accurately predict our own behaviour and preferences when we're in a different emotional state from the one we're currently in. When you're calm ("cold"), you underestimate how much anger, hunger, fear, or desire ("hot") will influence your future decisions. And when you're in the grip of a strong emotion, you struggle to imagine ever feeling calm and rational again.
This was studied extensively by psychologist George Loewenstein, who showed that people in a cold state consistently underestimate the power of hot emotional states - and vice versa. It's not just that we misjudge by a little; we systematically and predictably get it wrong.
The empathy gap doesn't only affect self-prediction - it also affects our understanding of others. When you're comfortable and well-fed, it's genuinely hard to understand the desperation of someone who is hungry. When you're not angry, it's hard to understand why someone else said something they now regret. We project our current state onto everyone, including our future selves.
In the real world
You go food shopping on a full stomach and buy sensible, healthy items. Two days later, you come home starving after a long day and wonder why there's nothing quick and satisfying in the fridge. Your past self - calm, rational, not hungry - made decisions that your present self - tired, hungry, impatient - finds completely useless. You weren't planning for the person you'd actually be.
The thought to hold onto
The version of you making the decision is not always the version of you who has to live with it. Plan for the emotional states you'll be in, not just the one you're in now.